Somalia’s Federal Government Controls Only 15% of Territory Amid Al-Shabaab Dominance, BBN Report Finds

"The explosion went off along the road in Hamar-Jajab area, destroying a civilian-populated building," a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

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Somalia: 15% Effective Control

"Statistics change frequently and are not permanent; however, the Al-Shabaab terrorist group currently remains significantly more powerful than the Federal Government of Somalia, which maintains effective control over only approximately 15% of the territory."

Global Risk

CRITICAL

State Analytics

15%

Territorial Reach

The Federal Government's administrative and security footprint is currently limited to approximately 15% of the total South-Central landmass.

Copyright BBN © 2025

Somalia’s Federal Government currently maintains effective control over approximately 15% of the country, according to a detailed analysis by Buraopost Newsletter (BBN). While government presence is concentrated in urban centers like Mogadishu, large portions of the country remain under the influence of the Al-Shabaab terrorist group, which continues to wield significant power across South-Central Somalia.

The report highlights a stark contrast in stability and governance across the federal states. Puntland State stands out as the most secure region, with a robust and self-sufficient government, disciplined security forces, and minimal reliance on foreign support. Despite small Al-Shabaab pockets in the Golis Mountains, Puntland’s autonomy and functional governance make it a benchmark for stability. The state has an estimated budget of $376 million and a GDP of $2.2 billion, reflecting a thriving port and trade economy.

In contrast, the capital region of Banadir (Mogadishu) remains volatile, with effective control rarely extending beyond city checkpoints. Despite receiving the highest concentration of foreign aid and military support from ATMIS, Turkey, and the United States, rural outskirts are exposed to security threats, limiting the Federal Government’s reach.

Other federal states face even graver challenges. Jubaland State has large areas in Middle Juba under Al-Shabaab administration, with the regional government’s authority mostly confined to Kismayo and select urban centers. Heavy reliance on Kenyan and ATMIS forces underscores the fragile security environment. South West State is highly dependent on Ethiopian and ATMIS forces, while major supply routes are controlled by Al-Shabaab, isolating the capital, Baidoa. Galmudug State experiences ongoing conflict, with government forces dependent on clan militias to combat insurgents, resulting in fluctuating control and low stability.

BBN’s assessment underscores that Somalia’s territorial administration is fragmented, with foreign military presence playing a decisive role in maintaining limited stability. While Puntland benefits from autonomy and governance, other regions remain critical or unstable, highlighting the challenges the Federal Government faces in asserting nationwide control.

Economic conditions reflect the security situation. Puntland thrives as a logistics and trade hub, while South-Central states rely mainly on agriculture, local trade, and ports like Kismayo. GDP figures range from $2.2 billion in Puntland to under $1 billion in states like South West, emphasizing the economic disparities tied closely to security and governance.

Somalia’s federal landscape remains fragmented, with Al-Shabaab’s influence pervasive outside the limited government-controlled areas. Puntland stands as a model of governance and stability, but other regions face ongoing conflict, dependence on foreign forces, and restricted operational reach. The situation illustrates the urgent need for strategic interventions to restore government authority and sustainable security across Somalia.

Source: Buraopost Newsletter (BBN), BBN Crisis Terminal v4.0 Intelligence Assessment, 2025